Risk, hazards and vulnerabilities

Disasters represent a major source of risk for the poor and can potentially destroy development gains and accumulated wealth. Currently, the main risk factors that may precipitate a disaster, at least in South-East Africa and South-West Indian Ocean, are the drivers related to hydro-meteorological dynamics which cause changes in climate. Disaster risk and climate change are two threats to human well-being that adversely reinforce each other.

A recent review of the Hyogo Framework of Action, 2by ISDR, Risk and poverty in a changing climate, stresses that disaster risk reduction can contribute to poverty reduction, development, and climate change adaptation; and consequently to global stability and sustainability. Disaster risk is disproportionately concentrated in developing countries which have more vulnerable economies, often weak governance structures and high poverty levels. Therefore, developing countries, and especially land-locked developing countries “suffer far higher levels of mortality and relative economic loss than developed countries when disasters occur” (ibid).

However, major data differences are observed between developing countries in terms of mortality and losses, due to variance in statistical treatment, and data collection methods, in addition to differences in hazard types (e.g., an earthquake, which occurs in a rural unpopulated area does not have a destructive effect, but one which occurs in a densely populated area will have severe consequences).

Hydro-meteorological hazards, poorly managed urban growth and territorial occupation, environmental mismanagement, declining ecosystems and climate change are considered as risk drivers in hazard–prone zones. These drivers disproportionally affect the poor, who are “less able to absorb loss and recover, and are more likely to experience both short- and long-term deteriorations in income, consumption and welfare” .

Currently, experts and practitioners agree that high poverty levels increase people’s vulnerability and reduce capacity to deal with disaster-related shocks (i.e., floods, cyclones crop pests, cholera among others). Disasters are acknowledged to be multi-dimensional and complex events and there are several key principles on hazard exposure, vulnerabilities, disaster related shocks and poverty. Some of these principles are listed below according to their relevance for risk reduction and best practice analysis. Furthermore, macroeconomic indicators of the four countries involved in this study are also referenced.