The Goal number 1 aims at reducing to half, by 2015, the number of people living below the poverty line. The starting level in Mozambique was 80%, in 1990, and the target is 40%, in 2015.

According to the third National Family Budget Survey (IOF 2008/09), the incidence of poverty in Mozambique in 2008/09 is estimated at 54.7% of the population (54.1% in 2002/03 and 69.4% in 1996/97). It also reveals the following about the poverty situation:

• The number of people below the poverty line increased from 9.9 million to 11.7 million people, due to the growth of the population, which was 3 million between 2002/03 and 2008/09.
• More than half - 56.9% - (55.3% in 2002/03) of the population below the poverty line lives in rural areas and 49.6% (51.5% in 2002/03) in urban areas.
• The northern region has the lowest incidence of poverty (46.5%) than the central region with an incidence of poverty of 59.7% and the southern region with 56.9%. Poverty has increased in the central region.
• The families headed by women have higher levels of poverty (57.8%) than those headed by men (53.9%). In 1996/7 the situation was reverse; the families headed by women had a lower incidence of poverty (66.8%) than the families headed by men (69.9%). 

 Incidence of poverty by province in 2009:

• 70.5% - Zambezia
  67.5 % - Maputo
  62.5% - Gaza
  58.0% - Sofala
  57.9% - Inhambane
  55.1% - Manica
  54.7% - Nampula
  42.0% - Tete
  37.4% - Cabo Delgado
  36.2% - Cidade de Maputo
• 31.9% - Niassa

Source: MPD et al, 2010. IOF 2008/09 data.

Constraints on the achievement of the targets for 2015

• • Very low or zero growth rates for agricultural productivity, together with climate shocks (floods, cyclones and droughts).
  • Aggravated terms of trade due to big increases of international food and fuel prices. Fuel prices, particularly, increased substantially during the 2002/03 to 2008/09 period.
  • One possible factor may be the cumulative effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The epidemic is more mature in the central region, and current estimates indicate the occurrence of approximately 300,000 deaths caused by AIDS in this region in the 2004 to 2009 period (INE et al., 2008).

Succinctly, during most of the period of the IOF 08/09 inquiry, the Mozambican population experienced the limited availability of locally produced food, very high cost of imported food, and still higher fuel costs, which made the distribution of imports and the transport from areas with surplus production to areas with shortages substantially more expensive. Given that about three quarters of poor families’ expenses for consumption is for food, these facts are definitely pertinent.

Challenges for the achievement of the targets for 2015

In spite of the results obtained between 2003 and 2009, it is believed that Mozambique still has the possibility to achieve the millennium target of 40% poverty rate. For the achievement of the target, it is necessary to reduce the poverty indexes in the next 5 years by 14 percentage points. Even without the gains in agricultural productivity, the rate of poverty appears to decrease by about 1% per year. This puts the best estimate for the rate of poverty in 2015 at about 48%.

Positive factors of progress

• The Government is engaged in the improvement of the living conditions of the population. This commitment is demonstrated by the massive investment in the areas of education, health and the supply of safe drinking water.
• The decentralization of resources to the districts and the consequent creation of the District Development Fund represent the Government’s effort in strengthening the districts as poles of development.
• Mozambique has continued to have relatively strong economic growth and a robust macroeconomic structure.
• The financial support provided by the G-19 and other Government partners is also an important factor for progress.

Source: Report on the Millennium Development Goals - Mozambique 2010